Given the extraordinary statements made by the Orkney and Shetland MSPs in recent days about the stance of their respective constituencies if Scotland becomes independent, it seems relevant to look at their mandates in the last election – May 2011.
POPULATION AND THE ELECTORATE
Using 2010 figures, the population of Scotland is 5,222,100, that of Orkney 20,100 and of Shetland 22,400. The combined populations, 42,500, represent 0.81% of the Scottish population.
At the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary elections, Liam McArthur, LibDem MSP was returned as MSP for Orkney with 2,912 votes, representing 35.7% of votes cast. The turnout was 8,152 from an electorate of 16,535 = 49.3% (In the 2007 election, McArthur polled 4,113 votes, representing 47.5% of votes cast.)
At the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary elections, Tavish Scott, LibDem MSP was returned as MSP for Shetland with 4,462 votes, representing 47.5% of votes cast. The turnout was 9,391 from an electorate of 17,586 = 53.4% (In the 2007 election, Scott polled 6,531 votes, representing 66.7% of votes cast.)
In combination, Tavish Scott and Liam McArthur received 7,374 votes out of 17,543 votes cast, i.e. 42.03%
They received 7,374 votes out of an electorate of 34,121, i.e. 21.5%
Their 7,374 votes represents 17.4% of the total population of Orkney and Shetland, and represents 0.14% of the population of Scotland.
Between them, Scott and McArthur received 10,644 votes in the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary elections but only 7,374 votes in 2011, a loss 3,270 votes, equalling 30.7% of their support.
COMMENT
Anyone can play games with election statistics in a democracy, especially when the lamentably low turnouts in British elections are taken into account. The bottom line is that both were re-elected and now represent their respective constituencies in the Scottish Parliament.
But given the lamentable performance of the LibDems overall in the Scottish election of 2011 and the present record of the LibDems in Coalition Government, the major decline in support for both Scott and McArthur in their own constituencies and the above statistical analysis, it seems to me an act of folly and arrogance to make such radical claims and threats as those they have made this week on behalf of the people of Orkney and Shetland.
Purely on the basis of a narrow mandate they secured last May - without as far as we know any wide ranging consultation with the total electorate - they have effectively threatened to opt out of Scotland, a nation they have been party of since the 15th century, at a crucial moment in its history.
The SNP and the Scottish Government, bluntly, have been less than impressive in their responses to this, and yesterday's statement SNP admits Shetland and Orkney could opt out of independent Scotland and Liam McArthur - Angus MacNeill authorised or not, astonished a number of people, including me.
I hope a wider and more representative range of voices from the people of Orkney and Shetland may be heard soon.
Posts
Peter,
ReplyDeleteLong time lurker on your blog!
Had to jump in, cos I'm worried you're taking this claim at face value. You say "last nights statement" but there was no statement, just a misleading Telegraph story.
Have you watched the Daily Politics interview that spawned that Daily Telegraph claim? Angus MacNeil didn't say what they claim.
Andrew Neil was determined to get Angus to agree in some way that Orkney & Shetland could decide their own fate. Angus pointed out they are part of Scotland, the islands supported devolution, etc, but of course if they wanted they could have self determination. This was then jumped on by Neil as confirmation they could stay in UK. It's nonsense. Angus was barely allowed a word over the interruption and barracking from Neil. Having given the libdem msp free reign to waffle for a while.
It really didn't matter what Angus said ... Andrew Neil was only looking for one answer, and claimed he got it. I was raging after watching it, typical 2 min dismissal of a story about Scotland.
Just worried you are assuming the claims are true Peter.
I';m assuming nothing, Ron - he reiterated SNP policy of supporting self-determination, incl. a related comment to me on Twitter.
ReplyDeletePeter
Sure, he agrees with self determination, thats what he said. The people of Orkney and Shetland have that right, like everyone else.
ReplyDeleteWhat he wasn't suggesting was that the islands could be treated differently during the referendum process. As he pointed out in the studio, they are part of Scotland, so it's a moot point.
If the Islands, or Glasgow, or Edinburgh wanted to secede from Scotland, ok, but thats a different process from the referendum.
All I'm saying is the claim by the Telegraph is bogus - he didn't say they could opt out of an independent Scotland. No more than any other part of Scotland. It's a deliberate misrepresentation Peter.
Not even Tavish Scott is saying they could be treated differently durint the referenedum process, Ron - every comment related to after the vote. "Everyone else" doesn't have a right to sefl-determination - I don't - my village doesn't, the City of Edinburgh doesn't, none of the other Scottish islands have such a right.
ReplyDeleteI quote from Wikipedia -
"Self-determination is the principle in international law that nations have the right to freely choose their sovereignty and international political status with no external compulsion or external interference. The principle does not state how the decision is to be made, or what the outcome should be, whether it be independence, federation, protection, some form of autonomy or even full assimilation.
Neither does it state what the delimitation between nations should be — or even what constitutes a nation.
In fact, there are conflicting definitions and legal criteria for determining which groups may legitimately claim the right to self-determination.
Moreover,self-determination is just one of many principles applied to determining international borders."
I think what is fairly clear is that no sense are Orkney or Shetland nations, nor have they ever been.
Peter
Tavish has brought up a strange concept IE any local authority in Scotland can either remain in the Uk or be independent ,depending on the vote regardless what the majority in Scotland vote. Consider some consequences---Aberdeen votes yes ,Scotland votes no --Shetland votes yes Scotland votes no ,you get my drift. During question time in the house of commons a tory teased Cleg about Shetland staying in the Uk --Clegg was not happy ,I think Tavish will be told to drop this silly idea . Perhaps Liberals should be told that Shetland`s position would be the same in regard to mineral rights as the Channel islands which extend only twelve miles offshore because they are on the continental self of France
ReplyDeleteNo, he won't be told to drop it, footdee, because the unionist parties are all wildly enthusiastic about this idea.
ReplyDeletePeter
Well, traditionally Berwick is part of SCOTLAND. I notice the Unionists don't want to bring THAT little detail up. *eye roll*
ReplyDeleteMy reaction was that it was absurd and that the SNP was right not to take the bait. It is actually a non-issue.