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Thursday, 28 August 2014

20 days to go - a few thoughts on #indyref state of play

Only 20 days to go - it's hard to believe. The campaign seems to have been going on for ever, but like everything in life, suddenly the event is upon you – there’s all the time in the world, then suddenly, there’s little time left.

It's very hard to predict what the outcome will be.

If the polls are to be believed (poll of polls average) YES will lose. There's no doubt that there is a very  fearful  NO constituency out there of Scots over 55 who fear change, fear uncertainty, and cling to the status quo, even though the risks are greater in remaining in UK.

There's also a hard core of selfish Scots - the "I'm alright Jock" complacent group, with no thought for the vulnerable in our society.

Set against that is the totally unique nature of the Scottish Referendum. There quite literally has been nothing like this - anywhere, ever.

A peaceful, democratic process by an ancient nation that was never conquered, but entered reluctantly, but voluntarily into a partnership with a larger nation 307 years ago, with many of its ancient institutions still functioning - its legal system, its church, its education system, its own NHS (since 1948), its own Parliament - and vitally, a mass YES  movement, the largest in British history, totally unprecedented, that has catalysed ordinary people across society and political divides, ethnic origins, age and sex demographics into political and constitutional awareness.

A referendum turnout of over 80% is expected to vote, and crucially, this will include people who have never voted before in their lives, and people who were never registered to vote.

Pollsters do not poll voters with no previous voting record, so this group, size unknown, is not reflected in poll results. Additionally, this group exists predominantly among the working class and the deprived, which is where YES has its greatest support - for obvious reasons.

YES has a huge army of foot soldiers, campaigning daily across Scotland, not just stuffing leaflets,  but carrying out their own polls on voting preferences. These results, together with an equally unprecedented attendance at political YES meetings across Scotland, with village halls packed out, all present an encouraging picture.

So there's all to play for!


  1. Although I have been a life-long supporter and promoter of Independence and all the myriad reasons for good to Scotland that YES - and a fair and just negotiation prior to Independence Real - will bring .... I now find myself with a tangible sense of dread as to what will happen if there is a No vote adding to my resolve to vote YES.

    The wrongly imagined complacent status quo in the minds of many who may not bother to vote in the blinkered expectation that we'll just carry on not realising the stated filleting of our precious limited devolution and resources both material and human if we don't aspire to our natural democratic right and reward with an assured cross in the YES box.

    1. Think of it this way, Clarinda - all of what you dread - and worse - would have happened if we weren't having a referendum.

      This way, we have a real fighting chance. I believe we'll win. Where I live is NO village, but Glasgow is YES city right now.

      Be of good heart ....



    2. Don't understand, Conan - do you mean Kirkliston residents voting preference?. If so, I do understand - and agree. My YES group keeps me informed. I don't have a bit, really - Main Street doesn't slot easily into any camp.