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Wednesday, 16 February 2011

Good morning, Scotland - is this a new dawn? (The Times Ipsos MORI poll)

These are the kind of headlines I like to wake up to -

The Times

Salmond surges into Holyrood poll lead

Labour alarm as voters ask “Who’s Iain Gray?”

Today’s lead story in The Times gladdens the heart, but then I remind myself that a poll is just a poll, and however psephologically sophisticated the selection of the 1000 voters polled, these indicators shift and waver in the lead-up to an election. But the shift is marked, and highly welcome, and I entertain the hope that it is an indicator that my fellow Scots have seen through the web of media lies, distortion, selective reporting that represents so much of UK - and shamefully, Scottish - media coverage of Scottish affairs and our devolved politics.

Ipsos MORI poll

forecast Holyrood seat on May 5th

SNP 51 seats (up 4)  Labour 48 seats (up 2)

Tories 14 seats (down 3) LibDem 12 seats (down 4)

Green 4 seats (up 2)

I can only recommend that you buy today’s Times and luxuriate in the good news while it lasts, and fervently hope that it will last, and that the momentum will grow until May 5th.

But don’t relax - get the message out, by every means possible, that Scotland intends to be governed by its ain folk, because only its ain folk can govern it well.

see excellent piece by Alex Porter - Scotland Unspun



The Good News 16th Feb 2011
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4 comments:

  1. AnonymousWednesday, February 16, 2011

    Hi Peter,

    OK so only so much credence should be paid to opinion polls, however it is still much nicer to see them going in our direction than the other way.

    There is also the fact that most polls underestimate the actual portion of the vote the SNP receive at an election, and so if this poll is "accurate" we may achieve more than +4 seats.

    Here's hoping. But you are right, let's not get carried away, remembering what happened to poor Mr.Kinnock when he believed the polls to be in his considerable favour. This poll should be an incentive for the SNP to increase its amount of leafleting and canvassing, not reduce it.

    Regards,

    ReplyDelete
  2. moriduraalt.blogspot.comWednesday, February 16, 2011

    Thanks Rab - I will allow myself a modest Cragganmore tonight to celebrate!

    ReplyDelete
  3. voterinscotlandWednesday, February 16, 2011

    Sites like yours are helping and many should give you a hearty thank you along the way for all the effort you put into the cause.

    ReplyDelete
  4. moriduraalt.blogspot.comThursday, February 17, 2011

    Thanks voterinscoltand!

    ReplyDelete

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